Abstract
With the spread of the new coronavirus around the world, governments of various countries have begun to use the mathematical modeling method to construct some virus transmission models assessing the risks of spatial spread of the new coronavirus COVID-19, while carrying out epidemic prevention work, and then calculate the inflection point for better prevention and control of epidemic transmission. This work analyzes the spread of the new coronavirus in China, Italy, Germany, Spain, and France, and explores the quantitative relationship between the growth rate of the number of new coronavirus infections and time. In investigating the dynamics of a disease such as COVID-19, its mathematical representation can be constructed at many levels of details, guided by the questions the model tries to help answer. Mathematical sophistication may have to yield to a more pragmatic approach closer to the ability to make predictions that inform public health policies.
In December 2019 , the first Chinese patients with pneumonia of unknown cause is China admitted to hospital in Wuhan, Hubei Jinyintan , since then, COVID-19 in the rapid expansion of China Wuhan, Hubei, in a few months time, COVID-19 is Soon it spread to a total of 34 provincial-level administrative regions in China and neighboring countries, and Hubei Province immediately became the hardest hit by the new coronavirus. In an emergency situation, we strive to establish an accurate infectious disease retardation growth model to predict the development and propagation of COVID-19, and on this basis, make some short-term effective predictions. The construction of this model has Relevant departments are helpful for the prevention and monitoring of the new coronavirus, and also strive for more time for the clinical trials of Chinese researchers and the research on vaccines against the virus to eliminate the new corona virus as soon as possible.
According to the original data change law, Establish a Logistic growth model, we collect and compare and integrate the spread of COVID-19 in China, Italy, France, Spain and Germany, record the virus transmission trend among people in each country and the protest measures of relevant government departments.
Based on the analysis results of the Logistic model model, the Logistic model has a good fitting effect on the actual cumulative number of confirmed cases, which can bring a better effect to the prediction of the epidemic situation and the prevention and control of the epidemic situation.
In the early stage of the epidemic, due to inadequate anti-epidemic measures in various countries, the epidemic situation in various countries spread rapidly. However, with the gradual understanding of COVI D -19, the epidemic situation began to be gradually controlled, thereby retarding growth
Author Contributions
Copyright© 2021
Cao Jinming, et al.
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Competing interests The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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Introduction
After the outbreak of COVID-19 in China, COVID-19 has also erupted in other countries in the world. Among the countries where new pneumonia outbreaks, Spain, Italy, France and Germany are more serious In fact, there are some urgent problems to be solved regarding the spread of COVID -19 . Can existing interventions effectively control COVID-19? Can you elaborate on the changes and development characteristics of each epidemic situation? Can you combine the conclusions found in the comparison of the city / region, actual national population, medical level, traffic conditions, geographic location, customs and culture, and anti-epidemic measures ? What mathematical model can we build to solve the problem? COVID-19 is a new coronavirus discovered in December 2019. The epidemic data is not sufficient, and clinical methods such as clinical trials are still in the exploration stage. So far, the epidemic situation data is difficult to apply directly to the existing mathematical model. The problems to be solved are: how effective the existing emergency response is and how to invest medical resources more scientifically in the future. On this basis, this article aims to study the shortcomings of this part
Results
On the basis of the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Italy from February 15th to May 3rd, we used Matlab to establish a Logistic model and performed linear regression analysis. Using the above processing, we can get the predicted cumulative number of confirmed cases in Italy as shown in As shown in
Discussion
The spread of COVID-19 is affected by many complex factors. In the early stage of the transmission of COVID-19, it is difficult to establish a Logistic model and parameter estimation and obtain a fairly accurate simulation result, but the initial estimated parameters such as the growth rate of the confirmed cases and the possible cumulative maximum confirmed cases can be obtained through existing data. It is helpful to solve important parameters such as infection rate and recovery rate, which will help us to grasp the transmission trend of COVID-19 more accurately.